Friday Four-Pack 11.8.24

The Patriots are annoying. More Shertenlieb Show fallout. A guest columnist talks UConn. Media notes, picks and more!

Monday’s cancellation of The Rich Shertenlieb Show on WZLX after less than six months was the biggest story in Boston media this week. And one of the bigger stories in Boston radio over the last five years.

We reacted to the news Tuesday in podcast form with former WEEI host and now Barstool Sports personality Kirk Minihane. The podcast and this newsletter have covered the story better than anyone else.

Not bragging. Just fact.

If you listen to Boston radio or want the inside story of what happened here, you need to listen.

A few follow-up thoughts from the cancellation and fall-out.

• It is worth watching Fred Toucher’s full reaction to the story. There is some real hate here. I’m not applauding it, but it’s clear that the angry breakup of Toucher and Rich was not exaggerated. As deep as Fred goes in on Rich here, it’s worth noting he’s “holding some stuff back,” in case Rich decides to ever come at him.
  
  I’ve been critical of Rich for not telling his side of the story, but maybe he’s afraid to because of what Fred could reveal about him. Then that begs the question, how bad could that shit be for Rich to just sit there and take Fred’s constant barrage for the last 11 months. His former co-host in multiple markets has been taking shot after shot after shot and Rich has just taken it…maybe that’s why.

• Safe to say the news was a shock to everyone on Rich’s show. They did not believe that iHeart would blow it up after just 5.5 months. There was hope that not only would the show get more time to grow, but eventually they would get rid of the 3-4 songs per hour and go back to the talk show format. Management saw weekly ratings that were not getting better and with massive cuts happening across the board at iHeart, it was probably a fairly easy decision to move on from Rich and his salary.

• Rich’s farewell on X.com is a tough read. “They wanted music, I did not.”
  
  Here is the reality - WZLX acquiesced to Rich’s idea of a talk show format from the start. After two and a half months, management added the 3-4x songs an hour because Rich’s ratings were tanking while the rest of the station was competitive with Men25-54. They were trying to help him, not hurt him. He hated it. HATED it.
  
  Back to the statement - zero ownership of the show’s failure. No accountability for putting a product on the air that the radio audience in Boston rejected. He struggled as a host and the ratings reflected that.

• So what’s next in WZLX mornings? As I mentioned on the podcast, iHeart has told co-hosts Emerson Lotzia and Michael Hurley they would be interested in working with them going forward. What that would look like or when that would happen…I’m not sure.
  
  In talking to a few people on Thursday, I get the sense that WZLX is not sure either and could take their time on this. It would not be surprising to see them wait until January 2025 to launch a new show - one that is sure to include music from the start. Could it feature Lotzia, Hurley, and a female host…I would not rule that out.

As for Rich’s next landing spot…no clue. Maybe Mike Thomas can convince him to take a pay cut and build an afternoon show at WEEI? He’d need a strong lead host to make that happen. Seems like a long shot, even given that Thomas was interested in bringing Shertenlieb aboard last year. 5% chance? Maybe 10%?

Comments are open below for all your Junior Program Director ideas for Boston radio.

Meanwhile, we have a guest columnist today. The Patriots are annoying. And Week 10 NFL Picks to tail or toss!

All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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Week 10 saw the finale of the current season of Sportsbook Live at Mohegan Sun.

We gave out some winning bets for Thursday Night football, handed out a Sportsbook Live participation trophy, and had a lot of laughs.

Plenty of picks and ideas for NFL Week 10. Watch on YouTube ⬇️⬇️⬇️

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On the very annoying New England Patriots….

No, Drake Maye is not annoying. He’s good. Might be very good. He showed real flashes in that loss to the Titans - flashes of a potential Franchise Quarterback. Yes, that position is so important I’m using capital F and capital Q. He’s not there yet, but I see signs.

His play to force overtime was spectacular. There might not be five better individual efforts by a quarterback this year in the NFL. Just awesome - and served as a reminder as to why he was compared to Josh Allen during the draft process.

It was perfect actually - he played well and the team lost. They’re back in the pole position for the #1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Those of us holding 12-1 tickets on the Pats to have the worst record in the NFL were celebrating when Maye got picked off to end that game - thanks in part to a LAZY attempt from Kayshon Boutte. Woof.

But it’s just an annoying team and franchise right now. I wish I had a better word but annoying fits.

It’s annoying how bad Alex Van Pelt is at his job. The play-calling has been a D+ at best this season. First-down runs are the norm. Repeated plays happen all the time. There is NOTHING new or innovative about what they’re running.

The guy I wanted, Ben Johnson, is kicking ass in Detroit and has helped make Jared Goff a legit MVP candidate. Watch the route that Amon-Ra St. Brown runs on this touchdown last week. Tom Brady was on the call for Fox (he’s getting better by the week) and said “I’ve never seen a receiver run a route like that.”

Tom Brady said that. I get that St. Brown is uber-talented, but credit Johnson for getting the most out of his players with innovative plays and routes. He should have been hired here in New England.

Van Pelt coaches like he’s stuck with the same four plays from Tecmo Bowl. Why is he still here? Fire him into the sun.

It’s annoying the Pats did nothing at the trade deadline. The Josh Uche trade…I didn’t like that one at all. Was he a problem in the locker room or something? He was a good situational pass rusher and you just gave him away. No moves for any of the 98 receivers they have on the roster. No attempt to trade for an offensive line upgrade - this line continues to be an embarrassment. They’re ranked dead last in Brandon Thorn’s OL rankings. Again. There was NO ONE out there to bring in to help protect your rookie quarterback? Eliot Wolf has had an atrocious Year 1 as the team’s executive vice president of player personnel.

It’s annoying they had good players here and had no idea what to do with them. Tight end Jonnu Smith had 56 catches and 1 TD in his two full seasons in New England. Last year in Atlanta, he racked up 50 catches on 70 targets and scored 3 TDs. This season in Miami, he’s backed that up with 30 catches on 40 targets and has been a go-to for Mike McDaniels’ offense when other guys have been hurt.

Fellow tight end Mike Gesicki was a “bust” here, but is thriving in Cincinnati.

I’d take either one of those guys over most of their receivers.

Maye vs. Caleb Williams should be fun this weekend. I’ll be rooting for Maye to play well and the team to lose. Again.

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On UConn’s chances at a three-peat…

As a proud UConn alum, I’m obligated to remind you that as the season starts this week, the capital of the college basketball world remains Storrs, CT. On Friday morning, depending on where you're shopping, the odds for the back-to-back champs to do it again ranged from 9-1 to 11-1.

I will be rooting for it to happen. But will it?

To answer that question, we turn to Joe “The Dying Guy.”

Joe is a listener to The Kirk Minihane Show who was diagnosed with a rare cancer (Synovial Sarcoma) when he was just 33 years old. His cancer has taken away the use of his right arm. His hair is now as white as snow.

He’s on the left, next to that jacked, handsome fellow. He’s 38!!! but looks 65.

Joe is doing and feeling well now. Earlier this year, he verbally agreed that if he got really sick and doctors told him the end was near, he’d take advantage of a Vermont law that allows assisted suicides to out-of-staters - and do so during a KMS Live Show. It was all detailed here last month.

So when Joe asked if he could write about UConn for MutStack.com…well, I consider it granting a dying man his wish - to write for a marginally successful newsletter and not get paid for it. This goes on the resume, St. Peter.

Joe has been very open about his cancer on his Stage 5 Podcast and Blog. You should of course check it out. But today is not about cancer. It’s about UConn. And Joe “The Dying Guy” is a UConn super fan. Go Huskies.

Two Reasons Why UConn Three-Peats and One Reason Why They Might Not.

Special from Joe “The Dying Guy”

The UConn Huskies are primed to be the first team to three-peat since John Wooden’s UCLA teams that won seven titles in a row. 

UConn has sent six players to the NBA over the last two seasons and made winning look easy by defeating opponents by an average of 18 points. Dan Hurley and Co. made top-tier Division I basketball teams look like they couldn’t beat KMS Coleman and crew in a 100-degree middle school gym on a random Thursday night. 

Last year’s UConn team was one of the best college teams ever assembled, yet they opened this year ranked #3. We all know Connecticut as a state sucks - it’s home to Andy Mayo and Joe Rogan can’t stop shitting on us…but can our basketball team get a little respect!?

I say bet it now: UConn +1000 to Three-Peat!

Why They’ll Win Part 1
The Players

Much has been made about Coach Hurley’s impact at UConn. And while his personal story arc will make for a much better movie than Home Team (starring Kevin James), even Coach will admit that great players make great coaches.  Impactful veteran leaders like Alex Karaban, Hassan Diara, and Samson Johnson… combined with hungry young stars like Solomon Ball, Liam McNeeley, and Jalen Stewart are the perfect cast of characters for Hurley to direct this year.

For UConn fans, this is a script that we have seen before. In the 2022-23 season, Donavan Clingan - who would have been a starter on most teams - sat behind Big East Preseason Player of the Year Adama Sonogo. Clingan averaged 6.9 PTS, 5.6 REB, and 1.8 BLK in his freshman year while sharing time with Sonogo. After Songo’s departure to the NBA, Clingan’s output increased to 13 PTS, 7.4 REB, and 2.5 BLK. His play altered the game defensively for UConn.  

For UConn to three-peat, Solo Ball needs to have a similar breakout sophomore season. Ball spent most of his freshman year being outshined by the #4 pick in the NBA draft, Stephon Castle.

“It was really hard to give him and his family an explanation (limited minutes), especially after Carolina at the Garden,” Hurley said of Ball’s 13-point performance in UConn’s win over North Carolina last season. Even after that game, he would see limited game action. “He was one of the two or three main reasons we won that game.”

Ball would be out of the rotation a few weeks later when Castle was at full speed.  Like Clingan, Ball handled his limited role on a championship team with class, viewing it as part of the process for his star to start shining this year.  

Helping Ball take this step forward is another returning player looking to improve his draft stock, Alex Karaban. I’ll say it, Alex Karaban is the Christian Laettner of this UConn team. The fundamental play and excellent court awareness, combined with a good outside shot and tremendous work ethic, make him a favorite for Big East Player of the Year. Karaban is the ultimate team guy willing to do whatever is necessary to win and his versatility allows him to play at a high level in all facets of the game. 

His teammates feed off of him and if UConn can hoist the trophy again this March, he will be a lottery pick and in the conversation as one of the best college players in recent history.

Why They’ll Win Part 2
The Coach and the Culture

“You win it, you are obsessed with getting another one. You lose it, you are obsessed with getting back here. There’s nothing good that's going to come out of this.” - Geno Auriemma

Geno Auriemma telling coach Hurley that no matter what happens in the National Championship, it’s going to be the worst day of his life, perfectly describes the drive required to coach or play in the basketball capital of the world - Storrs, CT!  

Hurley is an obsessed man with a coaching staff that's completely bought into the system and has no problems recruiting like-minded NBA-level talent. There are plenty of great coaches in college basketball - Greg McDermott, Shaka Smart, and others have all out-coached Hurley at times in the last two seasons. But there is no better program in college basketball than what Hurley has built.

With guidance from Geno and the AP Poll ranking Kansas and Alabama above a back-to-back National Champion, Hurley doesn't need to look too far for motivation this season. If UConn were named Duke or Kentucky, they would be ranked #1 in the AP Poll and talked about endlessly on ESPN. 

Hurley’s story arc has certainly caught national media attention, but the program still gets overlooked. No one is more aware of this than Hurley and his players will again be on a mission this season to prove it.

Why They Might Not Win
Cooper Flagg

If UConn does not make history this year, it will probably be because of Duke’s star freshman Cooper Flagg. This kid is legit and would have fit in perfectly at UConn. The Huskies’ schedule is loaded with monster Big East matchups and marquee out-of-league games with Baylor, Texas, and Gonzaga. I expect UConn will need some time to gel this season and unlike last season, there are going to be more than just three bumps in the road 

I wouldn’t be surprised if UConn loses in Maui or one of their out-of-conference games. They won't coast through an improved Big East, either. This might mean they won't be a top seed in the tournament and will have a tougher path to the Final Four. If so, Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils may be able to get some revenge on the new elite college basketball program: UCONN! 

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On your sports media and sports betting notes…

➡️ As noted above, Thursday marked the finale of this edition of Sportsbook Live at Mohegan Sun. I enjoyed doing the show and seeing the reaction of people seeing the spectacular FanDuel Sportsbook for the first time. I enjoyed prepping for the shows and doing the work each week. I loved working with Brad Bryant and the Mohegan team. I did not enjoy the technical issues that hampered the show - the stress of that potential each week impacted my performance as a host I could have/should have been better. That’s on me. I made plenty of mistakes that should be easy to avoid going forward. I would for sure do and handle things much differently. I will in the future. If you came by the show or watched on YouTube, a big thank you.

➡️ I don’t know if The Guardian is considered mainstream media in 2024, but I found it noteworthy they wrote about how CAW (Computer Assisted Wagering) play has hurt the average horseplayer. We saw the CAW groups in action Breeders’ Cup weekend, with multiple horses taking big odds drops right at the gate or even in some cases after the race had started. I have written about this for two years and the game has done very little to stop these groups from being able to bet big right as the race is about to go off. It has to stop.

These CAW groups keep betting more and the average players keep betting less. It is simply not sustainable. I expect the year-end review of the racing’s 2024 handle (amount of money bet) to show humans are betting less and less, while the computer teams prop up the actual number.

➡️ And while I complain about the sport, the Breeders’ Cup Classic lived up to the hype. Fierceness ran his eyeballs out only to get run down by a hard-charging Sierra Leone late. Awesome race. I wish my handicapping was better - hours of work and not one real strong hit all day. If you followed Jessica Paquette’s picks here or on our podcast, you did well. We’ll be back for Derby 2025.

➡️ Mike Felger and Jim Murray reacted to the Rich news at WZLX but admitted management did not want them to talk about it.

➡️ WEEI management reportedly told one of their hosts they could not go on a local podcast, which is a prime example of playing scared. A lot of people in radio are playing scared right now.

➡️ On Thursday’s Unnamed Show, Dave Portnoy suggested that Bill Belichick’s 24-year-old girlfriend is in command of his media and business affairs. WILD.

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On our Week 10 NFL Picks…Presented by Sharp Hunter

Week 9: 2-1 /// Season Record: 15-12 (55.5%)

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The Side
Steelers + 3 at the Commanders

Mike Tomlin auto-bet here. The Steelers’ HC is 41-28-1 ATS as a road 'dog with the Steelers. But it’s not just the trend here.

This is a good spot for the Steelers: they’re coming off their bye and facing a Commanders team that has faced the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL. Sure, the Jayden Daniels hype is real, but he’s done it against some of the worst teams in the NFL. Now he catches a good Pittsburgh team that’s # 8 overall DVOA defense.

The Commanders don’t get a ton of pressure up front and check in just 26th DVOA defense.

I also want to fade the Commanders’ #4-ranked conversion rate on third down. Oh, and they’re 11 for 11 on fourth down this season.

Mike Tomlin 26-6 SU all-time against rookie QBs. I like that trend. And oh, the sharps at Sharp Hunter are on this game, too.

Bark, bark, bark. I’m playing the road ‘dog Steelers here. 🐶🐶🐶

The Total
Chargers vs. Titans UNDER 39

First, the stats. In neutral-pace situations, the Chargers are the slowest team in the NFL per FTN’s snaps/sec stat. The Titans are just a tick faster, clocking in as the third-slowest team in the NFL in those same situations.

Both teams have good defenses to slow each other down - DVOA Ranks the Chargers #6 and Titans #9. So we get two slow offenses going against two good defenses.

Now, the trends. From Action Network, “Chargers are 7-1 to the under in the full game total this season, going under the total by 7.7 PPG. Since the start of last season, the under is 19-6 in Chargers games, the best mark for any team in the NFL. Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he is now 17-4 to the under since the start of last season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL – including 17-2 to the under in his last 19 starts.”

Those trends are hard to ignore. Now add in the slow offense and good defense and we have an under to hammer (responsibly) on Sunday.

The Prop
Bryce Young O10.5 rushing yards (-110, Fanatics)

He covered this number last week before taking two kneeldowns for -3 yards on the game's final two plays. That’s some prop bet pain.

This week, he faces a Giants’ defense allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. He topped the number 10 times as a rookie and is back in charge as the starter for a tanking team. Please note that this is the Sunday morning game in Germany and last season saw two of the four QBs who played in the NFL Munich games go over 20+ yards rushing (Mahomes / Mac Jones).

We have for sure said it all.

Thanks to Joe “The Dying Guy” for his UConn take. Good luck with all your bets. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.